As some of you may remember from my Oscar preview/prediction thingamabob from last year, I am an unadulterated, unrepentant, unflinchingly devoted devotee of the Academy Awards. I make no apologies for this. If you'd like a full on explanation for this devotion, please feel free to check out the Oscar extravaganza whozeewhatsit that I wrote last year. However, for the purposes of this exercise, I'd prefer to just hunker down and get elbow deep into this season's nominees.

Oscar: Not The Grouch

This year, the Oscar's are, well, kind of weird. Normally I have at least one movie that I am slavishly gunning for. One film that got nominated that I loved so much the very notion that it might win fills me with giddy anticipation for the weeks between the announcement of the nominations and the awards show itself. (i.e.: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, Life is Beautiful, American Beauty, Good Will Hunting, etc.) This year however, because Lord of the Rings didn't really do all that much for me, I'm up the proverbial creek, without the proverbial paddle. Sure. I can feel the laser sharp penetrating stares of some of you out there who think that Lord of the Rings was not only the best picture of this or any year, but was the best thing ever conceived, created or cooked up for movie going audiences since the beginning of all known and recorded time in this universe. To you I say, you'd better tune in to the Oscar's this year. Because you're either going to be euphorically triumphant for hours on end, or you'll have plenty of excuses to yell horrifying obscenities at your television because of the outrageous injustice being perpetrated on screen.

Personally, I hope that Lord of the Rings doesn't sweep this year for a couple of reasons:

Reason #1: It wasn't that freaking great.

Reason #2: If it wins all its categories, the show, despite all the promised Cirque Du Soleil and singing by Diane "I've Had the Time of My Life" Warren, will be really, really boring. Way more boring than usual. Like, unbearably boring. Which will mean that I will have gotten all frothed up for the show just like I do every year and will have to just make due with eating ungodly amounts of spinach/bacon dip and getting drunk beyond all reason. And while I would normally find pigging out on high fat, bacon laden, creamy dip (mmmmm.... dip) and getting irresponsibly intoxicated to be an enjoyable evening in and of itself, it's still going to make a part of me wither and die inside if there's not one reason for me to jump up off the sofa and scream in victory, scream in horror or scream in uncontrolled hilarity. There are a lot of interesting and unexpected nominees this year and it would really bunch my underpants if none of them stood any kind of chance at winning and thusly, making hilariously startled and flabbergasted acceptance speeches.

Here are my predictions for this year's show (made under the assumption that Lord of the Rings DOESN'T take every single category it's up for) broken down by who should win and who will win. I've shortened the stupid Academy category names down for the sake of brevity and sanity. I've also done away with some of the categories that are impossible for me to judge, like best-animated short or best documentary feature. This isn't because I think they are unimportant categories, but because, as always, nobody's been able to figure a way to get those films seen by anyone outside the Academy prior to the ceremony.

OSCAR 2002

Best Actor

• Russell Crowe in "A Beautiful Mind"
• Sean Penn in "I Am Sam"
• Will Smith in "Ali"
• Denzel Washington in "Training Day"
• Tom Wilkinson in "In the Bedroom"

  Who Should Win: This is a tough one. I don't know who SHOULD win. I just know that I don't want Russell Crowe to win because he's a blow hard and has become something less than what I'd call charming. Plus, his work in A Beautiful Mind wasn't life-alteringly fantastic or anything. I'll be pissed as all get out if Sean Penn wins (since he's been so good in so many other things and I Am Sam was horrible). I don't think Will Smith deserves to win but don't know for sure because I haven't actually seen Ali and I don't think anyone will vote for Tom Wilkinson to win mostly because he was in a movie that practically nobody saw.

  Who Will Win: Therefore, by default, I'm betting Denzel Washington wins. He normally plays a good guy, but in Training Day he plays a bad guy. So there it is.

Best Supporting Actor

• Jim Broadbent in "Iris"
• Ethan Hawke in "Training Day"
• Ben Kingsley in "Sexy Beast"
• Ian McKellen in "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring"
• Jon Voight in "Ali"

  Who Should Win: I'm pretty sure Ethan Hawke SHOULDN'T win, but I'd absolutely love it if he did. Not because I think he's a particularly amazing actor or because his work here was all that great, but because I would love to see how well or poorly the other nominees could pull off their "gracious-loser-faces" if he took this one.

  Who Will Win: Ian McKellen might win if the Lord of the Rings thing plays out. Jim Broadbent, who's been in three nominated films this year (Iris, Moulin Rouge and Bridget Jones's Diary) has proven in one year what kind of amazing range he has, so he might be able to pull off a win for his work in Iris. But Ben Kingsley has had people talking about his performance in Sexy Beast for months on end even though it barely came out in theaters. I'm betting he's a sure thing for this one.

• Halle Berry in "Monster's Ball"
• Judi Dench in "Iris"
• Nicole Kidman in "Moulin Rouge"
• Sissy Spacek in "In the Bedroom"
• Renée Zellweger in "Bridget Jones's Diary"

  Who Should Win: Renee Zellweger. Hers is the only performance that I was completely enamoured by. She was charming, complicated, funny, interesting and real without being overly dramatic or too much of a ham. But comedies never win. So she doesn't stand a chance.

  Who Will Win: Either Halle Berry or Sissy Spacek. Both of them are winning pre-Oscar awards up the yin yang and both of them played really tragically sad and closed off women horribly desperate to find some sort of emotional relief from the bad things that happen around them. I happen to think Sissy Spacek was able to play her role with a little more reserve and polish than Halle Berry, but she also didn't have to pretend to enjoy having sex with Billy Bob Thornton, so it could really go either way.

Popular, Original, Critically Acclaimed... Won't Win?

Best Supporting Actress

• Jennifer Connelly in "A Beautiful Mind"
• Helen Mirren in "Gosford Park"
• Maggie Smith in "Gosford Park"
• Marisa Tomei in "In the Bedroom"
• Kate Winslet in "Iris"

  Who Should Win: It would be awesome if Marisa Tomei won. Not only because her work in In the Bedroom was really great, but because it would finally put to rest the years of speculation and petty backbiting she's had to put up with since winning for My Cousin Vinny.

  Who Will Win: Jennifer Connelly or Helen Mirren. The Academy loves to give actress awards to women whose character suffers unspeakable tragedy or hardship with grace and dignity.

Best Animated Feature

• JIMMY NEUTRON: BOY GENIUS
• MONSTERS, INC.
• SHREK

  Who should win: Shrek. Monster's Inc. was great. No doubt about it. But at the end of the day, I liked Shrek better. Plus, any time an award can be snatched out of the evil clutches of Walt Disney, I'm a happy girl.

  Who will win: All those who have any conceivable chance at winning an Oscar this year, please take one step forward. Not so fast Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius.

Best art direction (sets, props, backgrounds, aesthetics)

• AMÉLIE
• GOSFORD PARK
• HARRY POTTER AND THE SORCERER'S STONE
• THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
• MOULIN ROUGE

  Who Should Win: Lord of the Rings. The lengths the art director went to get the sets to look the way they're supposed to are unheard of. They built some of them into the countryside and then let them deteriorate and grow into the landscape for an entire year just to make the buildings look authentic. That's the kind of dedication to one's craft that the Academy should recognize

  Will Academy voters even remember truth, beauty, freedom and love?

  Who Will Win: Lord of the Rings. See above.

Best cinematography (how the movie was shot to make it look the way it did and convey the mood and action of the plot)

• AMÉLIE
• BLACK HAWK DOWN
• THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
• THE MAN WHO WASN'T THERE
• MOULIN ROUGE

  Who Should Win: The Man Who Wasn't There. Roger Deakins is a genius and he made The Man Who Wasn't There gorgeous, brooding and truly film noir. Plus, I love so much of his other work that hasn't ever been recognized that it would be nice for him to get some big ups. He's already won a whole bunch of pre-Oscar awards for this one, so this may be his year to finally win.

  Who Will Win: Either Lord of the Rings or Moulin Rouge. Lord of the Rings because it had so many huge landscape shots and gigantic action sequences. Moulin Rouge because it had such a specific style and gigantic, complicated dance sequences.

• THE AFFAIR OF THE NECKLACE
• GOSFORD PARK
• HARRY POTTER AND THE SORCERER'S STONE
• THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
• MOULIN ROUGE

  Who should win: I really loved the majority of the costumes worn by practically everyone who showed up on screen in Moulin Rouge.

  Who will win: Lord of the Rings. Although I found a lot of the costumes in Lord of the Rings to be hilarious to the point of distraction (I'm talking to you Hugo Weaving).

• A.I. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
• THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
• PEARL HARBOR

  Who should win: I haven't seen A.I. or Pearl Harbor, so I can't really make a call on this one.

  Who will win: Lord of the Rings. They may not have been all the fan-freakin-tastic, but there sure were A LOT of 'em.

Best editing

• A BEAUTIFUL MIND
• BLACK HAWK DOWN
• THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
• MEMENTO
• MOULIN ROUGE

  Who Should Win: Memento. This movie isn't really a movie without the editing.

  Who Will Win: either Memento or Moulin Rouge. The editing in the first ½ hour of Moulin Rouge was tight, exact and really well done. However, it still doesn't really hold a candle to the storytelling done by the editing in Memento.

Best makeup

• A BEAUTIFUL MIND
• THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RINGS
• MOULIN ROUGE

  Who should win: Moulin Rouge. Hands down. And really, as long as A Beautiful Mind DOESN'T win, I'll be happy.

  Who will win: Moulin Rouge. Hands down. Unless of course Lord of the Rings does that whole sweep thing. But putting hair on feet and points on ears doesn't really compare to the huge amount of different makeup techniques Moulin Rouge had.

Best Score

• John Williams - A.I. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
• James Horner - A BEAUTIFUL MIND
• John Williams - HARRY POTTER AND THE SORCERER'S STONE
• Howard Shore - THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
• Randy Newman - MONSTERS, INC.

  Who should win: The Lord of the Rings. It's the only score I can actually remember, so it must have been, um, memorable.

  Who will win: Lord of the Rings. Getcher brooms out people. It's gonna sweep.

Yes. We all love subtlety.

• Randy Newman - "If I Didn't Have You" from "Monsters, Inc."
• Enya, Nicky and Roma Ryan - "May It Be" from "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring"
• Diane Warren - "There You'll Be" from "Pearl Harbor"
• Sting - "Until" from "Kate & Leopold"
• Paul McCartney - "Vanilla Sky" from "Vanilla Sky"

  Who should win: Dear sweet baby Jehoshaphat, please give it to Randy Newman so they'll stop nominating his sorry ass year after year. I'm tired of him. So tired.

  Who will win: Either Enya because it deserves the award or Paul McCartney because he wrote that unendingly repetitive "patriotic" song that he's been singing everywhere since 9/11.

• AMÉLIE
• BLACK HAWK DOWN
• THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
• MOULIN ROUGE
• PEARL HARBOR

  Who should win: I don't really know how to judge this category. The only lasting impression I had of Black Hawk Down was that it was really loud. So in as much as I remember the sound of it, I'm going to pick it to win.

  Who will win: Moulin Rouge. Don't know why, just guessing.

• MONSTERS, INC.
• PEARL HARBOR

  Who should win: As long as Pearl Harbor doesn't win, I won't throw anything at the television.

  Who will win: Pearl Harbor.

• Akiva Goldsman - A BEAUTIFUL MIND
• Daniel Clowes & Terry Zwigoff - GHOST WORLD
• Rob Festinger and Todd Field - IN THE BEDROOM
• Fran Walsh, Philippa Boyens, Peter Jackson - THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
• Ted Elliott & Terry Rossio and Joe Stillman and Roger S.H. Schulman - SHREK

  Who should win: Ghost World. An adaptation that truly abided by the original material's very specific voice.

  Who will win: Lord of the Rings. Thus setting off a frenzy of geek boy debates from coast to coast.

Best original screenplay

• Guillaume Laurant and Jean-Pierre Jeunet - AMÉLIE
• Julian Fellowes - GOSFORD PARK
• Christopher Nolan and Jonathan Nolan - MEMENTO
• Milo Addica & Will Rokos - MONSTER'S BALL
• Wes Anderson & Owen Wilson - THE ROYAL TENENBAUMS

  Who should win: The Royal Tenenbaums. This movie should have been nominated for Best Picture and several best actor categories, not to mention best costume and art direction. However, if it wins this category, I will happily Windex the spinach/bacon dip off the TV left over from when Pearl Harbor won for anything at all.

  Who will win: Memento and rightly so. I won't complain. It's a great screenplay.

• AMÉLIE
• ELLING
• LAGAAN
• NO MAN'S LAND
• SON OF THE BRIDE

  Who should win: I have no idea. I haven't seen any of these.

  Who will win: Amelie. It's the only film anyone outside the Academy's even heard of, so there's no way it won't win.

Battle of the CGI Stars

Best Director

• Ron Howard - A BEAUTIFUL MIND
• Ridley Scott - BLACK HAWK DOWN
• Robert Altman - GOSFORD PARK
• Peter Jackson - THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
• David Lynch - MULHOLLAND DRIVE

  Who should win: Baz Luhrman for Moulin Rouge, but he wasn't nominated for some God forsaken reason. Stupid Academy. Stupid! Stupid!

  Who will win: I don't really think any of these nominees is all that and a bag of Baz Luhrman, but since I have to pick one, I'm going with Peter Jackson. Ron Howard directed EdTV and Gung Ho, thus negating any chance he'd ever have of winning an Oscar. Ridley Scott only got nominated because he didn't win Best Director last year for Gladiator even though it won Best Picture. Robert Altman is an acquired taste that I don't think many Academy members have quite acquired and David Lynch made a movie that, although apparently brilliant, nobody saw.

• A BEAUTIFUL MIND
• GOSFORD PARK
• IN THE BEDROOM
• THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING
• MOULIN ROUGE

  Who should win: Moulin Rouge. It's the only of these 5 movies that I can say I loved and have seen more than once. And after the year we've had, the idea that "the greatest thing you'll ever learn is just to love and be loved in return" has a resonance that I rings more loudly than it may have had when the film was originally released. Plus it actually attempted to be innovative and take some risks. Some people would call that visionary. Others would call it a nice try. I'd call it my pick for Best Picture.

  Who will win: Either Lord of the Rings or A Beautiful Mind. I won't throw anything at the TV is Lord of the Rings wins, but I'll throw myself bodily into the TV if A Beautiful Mind does.

So there you have it folks. You can find out how completely right on or how horribly off base I am on Sunday, March 24, 2001 on ABC starting at 8:00 EST. But if you miss the telecast (on purpose or by mistake) wherever you end up that night, be sure to think fondly of me in my comfy pajamas, my furry slippers, gin and tonic in hand, screaming in fits of unbridled hilarity at whatever train wreck of an event this years Oscar's ceremony promises to be.